A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
