Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
